The China Century

U.S. policy has become obsessed with terrorist threats and the so-called Axis of Evil. While terrorist threats certainly need to be taken seriously, the Administration’s shrill approach and flat-out incompetency—and its use of the fear card—have played into terrorists’ hands by giving what is a rather fragmented, disorganized movement more credence and attention than it deserves. Designing virtually our entire foreign policy and its attendant resources around the fear of a terrorist attack seems to be a case of the tail wagging the dog, which in turn has seriously affected American prestige and its international standing.

Given somewhat less attention has been the quiet ascendancy of China, which probably poses the only true “threat” to American hegemony. In anticipation of this, many people have already dubbed this century “The China Century.”

China has made no secret of its desire to advance itself among the community of nations. To its credit, after surveying the international landscape and recognizing that the primary source of global power today is economic strength, the Chinese have for the most part eschewed a classic geopolitical, colonial and militaristic approach and instead identified economic, educational, and technological mastery as the key to prosperity and respect. While it certainly remains a Communist state, its met with great success in developing a market-style economy and has shown little interest in developing a geopolitical sphere of influence (unlike, say, the newly assertive, petro-dollar-driven Russia).

China is well on its way to achieving its goals. Although many of its political, social and legal institutions lag behind and remain the main threat to fully achieving its goals, it is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Its hunger for resources already has made it one of the largest donor nations in Africa and South America (and unlike the West, China provides funding with no strings attached, whereas Western nations tie human rights issues to funding). The Chinese have benefited greatly from sending its students and scientists abroad for legitimate study and training (primarily in the U.S.), and have a growing professional, middle class that is educated and increasingly proud of its country’s recent strides. Its middle class is projected to become the largest in the world by around 2025, and most ordinary Chinese feel a renewed sense of national pride and are understandably optimistic about the future.

Recognizing the importance of Sino-U.S. relations and trade, the U.S. has generally tried to play nice with China. At the same time, it has rightly raised serious concerns about its environmental records, its economic policies that often are at the expense of the U.S., and its human rights and political institution.

By the same token, it seems a bit disingenuous and hypocritical, however, to fault China for acting out of economic self-interest or to hold it to some higher standard. The U.S.’s growth to international prominence in the 19th and 20th century is marked by plenty of disregard for workers’ rights and the environment, and benefited a definite robber baron class. It’s arguable that the U.S might not even have become an economic powerhouse without these abuses; fortunately, the work of unions, anti-trust policies, and other such activities “corrected” these abuses in the long term. In view of this, one must wonder whether it’s just to hold another country to the same high standard while it makes the leap from an agrarian and basic industrial economy to a 21st century high tech one.

Obviously, the U.S. needs to act out of its own best interests as well, which understandably includes protecting its own place as the world’s premier superpower. However, we also need to wake up to the fact that, given China’s booming economy, its growing middle class, and its clear ambitions, it’s very possible that China may become the economic and technological engine for the world, the world’s tastemakers, and the largest consumer class that drives everything else. How this will benefit, or hurt, the U.S., remains to be seen; and, as a reporter for National Public Radio recently reported after a visit to China, there certainly are people who don’t wish the Chinese well, I suspect both for xenophobic and chauvinistic reasons. But it will be difficult to hold China back. And relative to the other threats that exist in the world, it would be prudent for the U.S. to develop a good partnership with an ascendant fellow economic superpower that is relatively benign compared to the kind of very real geophysical and national security threats that pose serious problems the U.S. around the world.